After President Cyril Ramaphosa was elected to a second term leading the ANC on Monday, discussions about party renewal and the president’s government reform agenda reached a fever pitch. Naturally, all of this is done with an eye toward the elections in 2024.
After terse and tight last-minute horse-trading and cajoling that was reflected in multiple small result margins, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s slate gained five of the seven senior ANC leaders’ jobs, nearly a clean sweep, according to the vote announcement on Monday.
ANC TOP 7 as of 19th December 2022
- President – Cyril Ramaphosa
- Deputy President – Paul Matshatile
- Chairperson – Gwede Mantashe
- Secretary General – Fikile Mbalula
- 1st Deputy Secretary General – Nomvula Mokonyana
- 2nd Deputy Secretary General – Maropene Ramokgopa
- Treasure General – Gwen Ramokgopa
That effectively means Ramaphosa stays in Luthuli House and the Union Buildings, leading a ruling party that is openly in decline and experiencing an existential crisis. Or, as it was stated in the organizational report: “We must accept that the ANC is going through a crisis that is endangering its very existence. If we do not take the appropriate steps, we cannot expect to accomplish any of our objectives or win back the confidence of the populace.
The organizational report is frank in discussing the ANC’s declining support among voters and how “disunity and factionalism remain widespread” despite poor party management. The report declared that “we are at a crossroads.”
Such direct remarks from a group whose membership has decreased from just over a million members in its centennial year of 2012 to 661,489 contradicts recent research that shows Ramaphosa’s public trust levels to be between 10 and 15 percentage points higher than the ruling ANC he leads.
However, a Section 89 independent panel’s recommendation that Ramaphosa had an impeachment case to answer for his Phala Phala farm forex scam hurt the president’s efforts to promote clean administration. Even though investigations are still being conducted by the Public Protector, Hawks, tax authorities, and South African Reserve Bank, ANC MPs used their numbers to block any additional legislative attempts to remove Ramaphosa from office.
Though tourism minister Lindiwe Sisulu, who has also been harshly critical of the president, was not there for the vote, minister of cooperative governance Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma did.
A change in the Cabinet
The first challenge Ramaphosa confronts is a Cabinet overhaul, which might happen as soon as January as a result of his stronger political position following his reelection.
Given a number of interrelated issues, including electoral procedure and compensation for devoted organizing, the timing is difficult. It will put Ramaphosa’s political savvy and resolve to the test.
Rumor has it that Sisulu and Dlamini Zuma will both be fired. In the public service and administration ministry, which has been without a political leader since Ayanda Dlodlo left for the World Bank, as well as the transport ministry, where Fikile Mbalula’s resignation is still pending because his role as the ANC secretary-general is a full-time position, there are two other openings.
Mbalula stated that at a televised briefing regarding the ANC elective conference on Monday night that might take place at the State of the Nation Address in February or on Monday.
Additional executive positions could result from the departure of deputy ministers like Phumulo Masualle, the deputy minister for public enterprises who ran on the Mkhize ticket.
Mabuyane and Mashatile
One of the many repercussions of the deals and horse dealing that must take place is that the Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane would have to be accommodated in Cabinet. Mabuyane, a Ramaphosa friend, received 1,858 votes compared to ex-treasurer Paul Mashatile’s 2,018 and was unsuccessful in winning the position of party vice president.
ANC Top 7 Actual Results
President
- Cyril Ramaphosa – 2,476 votes
- Zweli Mkhize – 1,897 votes
Deputy President
- Paul Mashatile – 2,178 votes
- Oscar Mabuyane – 1,858 votes
- Ronald Lamola – 315 votes
Secretary General
- Fikile Mbalula – 1,692 votes
- Phumulo Masaulle – 1,590 votes
- Mdumiseni Ntuli – 1,080 votes
1st Deputy Secretary General
- Nomvula Mokonyane – 2,195 votes
- Tina Joemat-Petterson – 2,145 votes
2nd Deputy Secretary General
- Maropene Ramakgopa – 2,373 votes
- Ronalda Nalumango – 1,948 votes
Chairperson
- Gwede Mantashe – 2,062 votes
- Stanley Mathabathaba – 2,018 votes
- David Masondo – 280 votes
Treasure General
- Gwen Ramakgopa – 1,809 votes
- Pule Mabe – 1,652 votes
- Benjamin Chauke – 580 votes
- Mzwandile Masina – 281 votes
Mashatile’s wish to move into government was clearly expressed by the now ANC deputy president to Bloomberg, where he said: “If I am deputy president of the ANC I think it will be better to go and assist in government”.
Mashatile is not an MP, though. The Constitution also states in section 91(3)(a) that “The President shall choose the Deputy President from among the Members of the National Assembly.”
The prospect of Enoch Godongwana, the finance minister, and Ebrahim Patel, the minister of trade and industry, filling the two Cabinet positions now held by them from outside of Parliament, is not applicable.
Ramaphosa will need to wait until May 2023, when the electoral system will permit the amendment of public representatives lists, to add Mashatile to those lists after a resignation leaves a vacancy. He will then need to manipulate a vacancy on the ANC benches in Parliament so that Mashatile can fill it.
Along with Mbalula’s remarks, this timeline suggests flexible scheduling for a Cabinet rearrangement and perhaps even another step toward the downscaling Ramaphosa mentioned when he was elected president by MPs in February 2018 of the state.
Mabuza Puzzle
Another puzzle for Ramaphosa is how the current Deputy President David “DD” Mabuza will agree to step down or be replaced. Mabuza did, however, decline a nomination from the floor at the ANC national elective conference, potentially indicating that he was ready to make a move in politics.
Voting and related issues occupied a large portion of the five-day ANC elective conference, from a confusing delegate registration process that delayed the start, to voting, including eleventh-hour backroom wheeling and dealing.
This is evidenced by the razor-thin margins in several of the official elections and some somewhat peculiar voting patterns that saw two candidates associated with the Ramaphosa camp divide the vote for deputy presidency, secretary-general, and national chairperson.
NEC challenges
The majority of the 80-member ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) candidates are not supportive of Ramaphosa, therefore the balance of power in the highest decision-making organization between conferences may prevent Ramaphosa from acting as he would want.
The clamor, rivalry, and, yes, division are expected to persist. not just in the ANC, but also in the institutions of government it holds sway over.
Some of it appeared to come to light on Monday when word spread through the grapevine that the Economic Transformation Commission had decided to transfer the struggling Eskom, which has been plagued by nearly constant rolling power outages, to the Department of Mineral Resources.
Mantashe, who has been fighting for Ramaphosa for the previous three weeks, is in charge of that. Through a series of agreements, the President was able to stay in office and ultimately win reelection as the party’s leader for a second term.
The findings were still up for adoption in plenary on Sunday night even though the policy debate commissions had finished their work. On Tuesday, when the ANC announced that the conference would end, the resolutions are anticipated to be released.
The outdated is giving way to the modern. What remains to be determined, though, is how much has actually changed.